SoftSignal Research  /  Markets  /  Grains & Oilseeds

The world's food balance, measured three times a week.

Corn, soybeans, and two wheat contracts — the deepest, most fought-over complex in agricultural futures. Every summer the US growing season re-prices the global balance sheet acre by acre, and every Friday the COT report shows who believed the weather. We track both sides of that argument.

Explore the Demo → Current corn signal →
Markets covered
ZC CBOT Corn — 5,000 bushels
ZS CBOT Soybeans — 5,000 bushels
ZW CBOT SRW Wheat — 5,000 bushels, Chicago
KE CBOT HRW Wheat — 5,000 bushels, Kansas City
ZM · ZL Soybean Meal & Oil — positioning in the cross-market report

4+2
Core contracts — corn, soybeans, SRW, HRW — plus meal and oil positioning
3×/wk
Report cadence — Monday conditions, Thursday drought, Friday full COT
2010+
COT positioning history — every print percentile-ranked
3
Hemisphere-spanning weather watch — US belts, South America, Black Sea

One growing season sets the world's price of calories

The grain complex is where agricultural futures started, and it is still where the most information collides: weekly government condition ratings, monthly world balance sheets, satellite-era drought maps, export inspections, and one of the deepest speculative books in any commodity. The US crop is measured in public, in near real time — the market's job is deciding how much of each measurement to believe.

That makes grains unusually rich in checkable questions. When Good-to-Excellent ratings slip three points in July, is that within the normal week-to-week churn, or the start of a condition slide that historically costs bushels of yield? When the Drought Monitor paints the HRW belt red in April, does it matter more or less than the same map in October? The data to answer those questions exists — it is just scattered across half a dozen agencies that publish on different days in different formats.

And the Northern Hemisphere is only half the year. Brazil's safrinha corn and Argentina's soy harvest re-run the entire drama every Southern summer, with CONAB and the USDA frequently telling different stories about the same fields. The gap between those two estimates has a habit of closing violently. Which one do you trade?


Four layers, one read

Every SoftSignal market is covered the same way: who holds the positions, what the balance sheet says, what conditions on the ground are doing, and what the climate background implies. For grains, each layer looks like this.

PositioningWho holds the risk
CFTC disaggregated COT for corn, soybeans, SRW, and HRW — managed money and commercial net positions percentile-ranked against history since 2010, week-over-week flow, open interest, and the Deferred Crop-Year Positioning read. Soybean meal and oil in the cross-market report.
Supply & demandThe balance sheet
USDA WASDE world and US balance sheets with month-over-month revisions and stocks-to-use back to 2007, CONAB Brazil estimates tracked against WASDE, and the March Prospective Plantings / June Acreage pair that resets the acreage math twice a year.
Ground conditionsWhat the crop is experiencing
USDA NASS weekly crop progress and Good/Excellent ratings with seasonal overlays back to 2010, US Drought Monitor coverage for the corn/soy belt and both wheat belts, and global crop weather for the Argentine Pampas, Brazil's MATOPIBA, and Russian and Ukrainian wheat country.
Climate backgroundThe season-scale tilt
ENSO phase from NOAA indices (classified on the climate-adjusted RONI) — the strongest documented driver of South American growing seasons — plus the Indian Ocean Dipole where it bears on the Southern Hemisphere crop.

What matters, when

Grain risk moves with the crop calendar. July weather is corn weather; August belongs to soybeans; wheat runs on a different clock entirely — and South America re-opens the whole question in December.

US Corn
Planting
Apr – May
Pollination
Jun – Jul
Harvest
Sep – Nov
US Soybeans
Planting
May – Jun
Pod set & fill
Jul – Aug
Harvest
Sep – Nov
US Winter Wheat
Planting
Sep – Oct
Dormancy
Nov – Feb
Heading & grain fill
Mar – May
Harvest
Jun – Jul
South America
Brazil safrinha corn
Planted Jan – Mar
Key rains
Argentina soy & corn
Key growth Jan – Feb
Planted Oct – Dec

Approximate national windows; state-level progress differs and is exactly what USDA crop progress tracks week by week. The Grain Outlook runs full-season April through November, with positioning and drought coverage continuing through winter.


The weekly rhythm

Monday
USDA crop progress & conditions released 4:00pm ET
Grain Outlook opening view publishes
Tuesday
COT report date — positions as of today's close, published Friday
Wednesday
Global crop-weather series refresh through the week
Thursday
US Drought Monitor released 8:30am ET
Grain Outlook drought refresh
Friday
CFTC COT released 3:30pm ET
Grain Outlook final weekly edition

On the monthly clock: WASDE lands around the 10th–12th and gets a same-day visual supplement. Twice a year — March Prospective Plantings, June Acreage — the acreage supplement re-baselines the whole complex. CONAB's Brazil surveys arrive on their own monthly cycle.


Where grains show up

Weekly report · Subscribers
Grain Outlook | US

The core read, three times a week: COT percentiles for all four contracts, condition ratings with seasonal overlays, drought-belt coverage, and release-day context at WASDE and acreage reports.

See it in the demo →
Supplement · Free
WASDE Grain & Cotton Report

A clean visual read of every monthly WASDE — ending stocks, stocks-to-use back to 2007, and month-over-month revisions for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton.

See it in the demo →
Supplement · Subscribers
CONAB Brazil Crop Estimates & Global Crop Weather

Brazil's official estimates tracked against WASDE — plus current-conditions monitoring for the Argentine Pampas, MATOPIBA, and Black Sea wheat.

See it in the demo →
Free · Weekly signals
Grain Signal Pages

Public one-page reads for each contract — managed-money regime, week-over-week change, and condition stress — updated after every CFTC release.

Corn →   Soybeans →   HRW →   SRW →

Grain research notes

Read this week's grain data

The full Grain Outlook — positioning percentiles, condition overlays, drought maps, and the WASDE supplement — is in the open demo. No email, no card.

Open the Demo → Plans & pricing →

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