SoftSignal Research

Commodity markets.
Clearly explained.

Weekly intelligence reports across Coffee, Grains, Energy, and Livestock — powered by CFTC COT positioning, USDA supply & demand, agro-climatic conditions, and EIA energy data. Plus an AI research assistant built on your data.

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Primary data sources
CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders — weekly
EIA Natural gas storage, spot prices, LNG exports
NOAA GFS 16-day forecast · population-weighted HDD/CDD
ERA5 30-year climate normals — WMO 1991–2020 baseline
USDA NASS crop progress · WASDE supply & demand
UNL US Drought Monitor — D0–D4 weekly severity
Publications

Four weekly reports

Each report is self-contained, updated on its own schedule, and hosted as an interactive HTML document. Subscribers receive a summary email with a direct link to the current week's issue, which updates in place throughout the week. Subscriptions are managed securely through Beehiiv.

Best value
Premium Access
Energy · Grain · Coffee · Livestock — all four weekly publications
AI Market Analyst at chat.getsoftsignal.com  Beta
The AI analyst is in active development. Early subscribers shape what we build — feedback is welcomed.
$150/mo
vs. $256 individual
Get Premium Access →
Energy Updated daily
Energy Market Intelligence
$79 / month

Natural gas market intelligence — temperature demand forecasts, EIA supply data, and CFTC positioning in one report updated each morning.

  • Population-weighted HDD/CDD for 9 US energy regions — 16-day GFS forecast
  • Deviation from 30-year ERA5 climate normals, updated daily
  • EIA weekly natural gas storage vs. 5-year average and prior year
  • Henry Hub spot price, power burn, production, and LNG export context
  • CFTC COT positioning for natural gas, WTI crude, heating oil, RBOB
  • ENSO phase and seasonal demand implication updated weekly
Subscribe — Energy View sample issue →
Grain Mon · Thu · Fri
Grain Outlook | US
$79 / month

Weekly analysis of corn, soybean, and winter wheat markets — from field conditions through futures positioning.

  • CFTC Disaggregated COT for corn, soybeans, SRW & HRW wheat
  • USDA NASS crop progress & conditions (Good + Excellent %)
  • US Drought Monitor — corn/soy belt and HRW wheat belt coverage
  • Seasonal condition overlays vs. prior years back to 2010
  • Full-season report April–November; COT + drought only December–March
  • USDA Prospective Plantings and WASDE context at key releases
Subscribe — Grain View sample issue →
Coffee Updated weekly
Coffee Market Intelligence
$49 / month

Dual-market coverage of ICE KC Arabica and ICE EU Robusta futures — combining positioning analysis with growing-region climatology.

  • CFTC & Liffe disaggregated COT — commercial and managed-money positioning
  • Sentiment index: percentile rank vs. full history since 2006
  • Arabica: Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia crop-water-stress deviations
  • Robusta: Vietnam, Brazil Conilon, and Indonesia agro-climatic conditions
  • KC and RC price overlays with seasonal trajectory context
  • Updated weekly after CFTC Friday release
Subscribe — Coffee View sample issue →
Livestock Updated weekly
Livestock Market Intelligence
$49 / month

Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs — supply pipeline, cold storage, feed cost margins, thermal stress, and CFTC positioning.

  • USDA Cattle on Feed — placements and marketings monthly
  • USDA Cold Storage — frozen beef and pork stocks
  • Feed cost ratios — cattle-corn and hog-corn margin indicators
  • Daily apparent temperature stress index — hog belt & feedlot belt, updated every morning
  • CFTC COT for Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs
  • US Drought Monitor — key grazing state coverage
Subscribe — Livestock View sample issue →
Free publications
Cross-market Updated weekly
The Positioning Report
Free — distributed on X

Speculative positioning across energy, metals, and agricultural futures — eight markets in one weekly chart set.

  • WTI Crude Oil · RBOB Gasoline · Gold · Silver · Copper
  • Corn · Soybeans · Live Cattle
  • Managed-money net position vs. full COT history since 2010
  • Week-over-week flow and open interest context
Follow on X → View sample issue →
Grain Monthly release
WASDE Grain & Cotton Report
Free — no subscription required

A clean visual read of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, published the day of each monthly release.

  • Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Cotton
  • World and US ending stocks with stocks-to-use ratios
  • Month-over-month revision tracking
  • History back to 2007 for trend context
View Latest Issue ↗
Methodology

Primary data sources

Every number in every report traces back to a public, authoritative source. No proprietary models, no black boxes. The analysis is the value — not the data.

CFTC Disaggregated COT All reports Weekly commitments of traders — producers, swap dealers, managed money, other reportables. Released each Friday. Why COT matters →
EIA — Energy Information Admin. Energy Weekly natural gas storage (Thursdays), Henry Hub spot prices, dry gas production, power burn, LNG export data.
NOAA / GFS Forecast Energy 16-day Global Forecast System temperature forecasts across 91 population-weighted grid points in nine US energy regions. Updated daily via Open-Meteo.
Copernicus ERA5 Energy 30-year (1991–2020) hourly reanalysis data for HDD/CDD climate normals. The WMO standard baseline for all temperature anomaly reporting.
NOAA CPC Energy Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — current ENSO phase and directional implication for US energy demand.
USDA NASS Grain Weekly crop progress and condition ratings for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat at national and state level.
US Drought Monitor Grain University of Nebraska–Lincoln weekly drought severity. D0–D4 coverage percentages for key grain-belt and grazing states.
USDA WASDE Grain Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates — global production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Released ~10th–12th of each month.
ICE Liffe (Robusta) Coffee ICE EU disaggregated positioning data for Robusta Coffee futures traded in London.
Questions

Frequently asked

How often are reports updated?
Energy Market Intelligence updates daily — weather forecasts each morning, EIA storage added Thursday PM after the 10:30am ET release, and COT positioning added Friday PM after the 3:30pm ET release. The same report URL updates in place throughout the week.

Grain Outlook updates three times each week — Monday (opening view), Thursday (drought data refresh), and Friday (final with full COT).

Coffee Market Intelligence and The Positioning Report update once per week after the Friday CFTC release.
What is population-weighted temperature forecasting?
Standard weather services report temperature at single stations or simple geographic averages. SoftSignal weights GFS model temperature forecasts by population density across 91 grid points in nine US energy regions — giving more influence to areas where more people live and consume energy. The 30-year climate normals (ERA5, 1991–2020) use the same weighting, so deviations are directly comparable.
What format are the reports in?
Reports are interactive HTML documents hosted at reports.getsoftsignal.com. All charts are fully interactive — zoom, hover for exact values, toggle series on and off. The link in your weekly email is stable for the full week and updates in place as new data is added, so revisiting the same link always shows the freshest data.
Can I use these reports with AI tools like ChatGPT or Claude?
Yes — and this is a deliberate design decision. Behind each chart, the full underlying data table is embedded directly in the page as structured text, readable by AI browser extensions and assistants. A clipboard icon on each chart lets you copy the data in one click and paste it into any AI tool. Because the actual numbers are in the page — not locked in a PDF — AI responses are grounded in real data rather than approximations. How we built it →
Are the subscriptions independent?
Yes. Coffee ($49/mo), Grain ($79/mo), Energy ($79/mo), and Livestock ($49/mo) are each separate subscriptions. The Positioning Report is free and distributed weekly on X (@SoftSignalR). The WASDE supplement is always free with no subscription required.
Do I need a financial background to use these reports?
The reports are written for active retail traders and commodity market followers who understand futures basics. COT data is explained in context, but we assume familiarity with concepts like long/short positioning and open interest. If you follow commodity markets, you'll find the analysis immediately useful.
Can I share the report link with others?
Report URLs are unique to each subscriber week and are not publicly indexed. Occasional sharing is understood; systematic redistribution is a violation of the subscription terms.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a weekly publication showing the aggregate futures positions of producers, swap dealers, managed money (hedge funds), and other large traders across hundreds of regulated US markets. It reveals who holds positions — not just the price. Percentile-ranked against full history, managed money extremes and commercial hedger positioning are among the most reliable indicators of sentiment crowding and potential reversals. Read the full explanation →
What is the WASDE supplement?
The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is one of the most market-moving reports in commodities, released monthly. Our WASDE supplement is a free visual interpretation — Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Cotton — with ending stocks history, stocks-to-use trends, and month-over-month revisions. No subscription required.