Research & Analysis — SoftSignal Research

Grain Livestock Drought

One Drought, Three Markets: How a Weak La Niña Reshaped the 2026 US Grain & Livestock Setup

The Southern Plains drought fingerprint from this year's La Niña reads differently in HRW wheat, cattle, and soybeans. A breakdown of what the Drought Monitor, USDA condition data, and CFTC positioning are showing — and where the stories diverge.

ENSO for Commodity Traders — A Practical Guide to El Niño and La Niña

El Niño and La Niña are the most powerful systematic supply risk factors in commodity markets — and the most underused. A practical guide to reading ENSO signals across coffee, grains, softs, and energy.

ONI vs RONI: Why the Way We Measure El Niño Just Changed

NOAA has officially transitioned from ONI to RONI — the Relative Oceanic Niño Index. For commodity traders, this is not a technical footnote. It changes how you read ENSO signals, validate historical analogs, and manage supply risk.

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