What USDA Is Saying: China Corn & Soybeans

We are data aggregators, not forecasters — so this page does one thing: it lays out what the USDA's own reports say about China's grain demand, quoted with a full citation to every source, and keeps our market read clearly separate. USDA's attaché posts and its WASDE-cycle circulars are read together and dated; where our own view diverges — because a fast-moving trade file can outrun a monthly report — that read is walled off in its own box below each subject. Refreshed each WASDE cycle.

USDA China corn as of 2026-07-10

China's corn import book collapsed to 5–6 MMT — and 0 MT of it is U.S. on the books.

What USDA's reports say

As of early July 2026, USDA's read on China corn is more domestic supply, less import demand. The Beijing attaché raised MY2026/27 corn production 1 MMT to 306 MMT on better yields and expanding Northeast-China area, and cut Post's MY2026/27 import estimate to 6 MMT — 2 MMT below March — citing continued import restrictions and "Beijing's silence on grain import deals" [CH2026-0085, Jul 3]. MY2026/27 ending stocks are pegged at 164 MMT, 11 MMT below the prior year on lower imports and more state auctions [CH2026-0085]. Feed and residual corn use is held at 241 MMT, with poultry — not hogs — the growth engine [CH2026-0085].

On the official side, the July WASDE-cycle circular corroborates the import-demand weakness: it cut China's MY2025/26 corn imports to 5 MMT (−1 MMT) on trade data [Grain: WM&T, Jul 2026] — the same level the attaché reports. For MY2026/27, that circular listed no change to China corn trade this month (only barley moved, +0.2 MMT to 10.7 MMT on stronger Canadian supply) [Grain: WM&T, Jul 2026].

Trade politics sit underneath all of this: China cut additional tariffs on U.S. corn to 10% on Nov 10, 2025, and leaders met May 14, 2026 — yet the attaché reports 0 MT of outstanding U.S.-origin corn sales for MY2025/26 and no resumption of U.S. purchases. Meanwhile Argentina re-entered the China market after 13 years (~454,000 MT / 12 vessels since April) and Brazil began shipping DDGS [CH2026-0085].

How the view has moved

Attribute	March 2026 (Post)	July 2026	Source
Corn production MY2026/27	305 MMT	306 MMT (+1)	CH2026-0085
Corn imports MY2026/27 (Post)	8 MMT	6 MMT (−2)	CH2026-0085
Corn imports MY2025/26	6 MMT	5 MMT (−1)	CH2026-0085 + Grain WM&T
Corn feed & residual MY2026/27	241 MMT	241 MMT (unch.)	CH2026-0085
Corn ending stocks MY2026/27	—	164 MMT	CH2026-0085

Sources

Post analysis Grain and Feed Update (China) · CH2026-0085 · 2026-07-03
Official Grain: World Markets and Trade — July 2026 · 2026-07-10

SoftSignal's view — our read, not USDA's

Both sources predate or coincide with a fast-moving trade file, and that is where we may legitimately diverge from the USDA baseline:

The attaché is dated July 3; the truce dynamics (May-14 leaders' meeting, Nov-2025 tariff cut to 10%, Section 301 exclusions available through Dec 31, 2026) can shift purchase behavior faster than a monthly report cycle.
USDA's own evidence — 0 MT of outstanding U.S. sales despite a lower tariff — says the policy thaw has not yet become commercial flow. A single large state-buyer announcement would date the 6 MMT import figure quickly.
Net: we can quote USDA's 306/6/164 as the authoritative baseline as of early July, while noting on our own authority that the import number is the most perishable line in it.

USDA China soybeans as of 2026-07-10

China imports ~115 MMT of soybeans (~61% of world trade) — but the tonnage routes to Brazil and Argentina, not the U.S.

What USDA's reports say

Where corn shows a collapsed import market, soybeans show a large and still-growing one. USDA's July balance sheet carries China soybean imports at 115 MMT for 2026/27 (raised 1 MMT this month) and 113 MMT for 2025/26 (also +1) — against domestic production of only ~21 MMT, so China imports roughly 85% of the beans it crushes (crush 111 MMT) [WASDE, Jul 2026]. At ~115 of ~189 MMT of world soybean trade, China is about 61% of all global soybean imports — the single buyer the whole trade is organized around.

But the tonnage is structurally South American, and the July cycle shows it plainly. The oilseeds circular raised China's imports "in line with prior year" and, in the same table, raised Brazil's soybean exports on "higher China demand"; U.S. soybean prices, by contrast, only "rallied over the past week on news of China soybean purchases" [Oilseeds WM&T, Jul 2026]. The attaché reporting fills in the destinations: Brazil is finishing a record 184 MMT export-oriented crop [BR2026-0029], and Argentina's single largest whole-bean destination is China at 2.63 MMT [AR2026-0009]. Total U.S. soybean exports to all destinations are ~45 MMT — under half of what China alone imports [WASDE, Jul 2026].

So the picture is not "China isn't buying" (it is, enormously) but "China's incremental bean is a Brazilian bean." The news moves the U.S. board; the cargo clears a South American port.

How the view has moved

Attribute (MY2026/27)	June 2026	July 2026	Source
China soybean imports	114 MMT	115 MMT (+1)	WASDE
China soybean crush	110 MMT	111 MMT (+1)	WASDE
China soybean production	21 MMT	21 MMT (unch.)	WASDE
China ending stocks	44.27 MMT	44.27 MMT (unch.)	WASDE
Brazil soybean exports	117.5 MMT	118.0 MMT (+0.5, "higher China demand")	Oilseeds WM&T
U.S. soybean exports (all dest.)	~44.4 MMT	~45.2 MMT (+0.8)	WASDE / Oilseeds WM&T

Sources

Official WASDE — July 2026 · 2026-07-10
Official Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade — July 2026 · 2026-07-10
Post analysis Oilseeds and Products Update (Brazil) · BR2026-0029 · 2026-07-06
Post analysis Oilseeds and Products Update (Argentina) · AR2026-0009 · 2026-07-06

SoftSignal's view — our read, not USDA's

Read next to china-corn, soybeans complete the pattern: China buys from everyone but the United States — in corn by buying almost nothing (and 0 MT from the U.S.), in soybeans by buying enormous amounts but sourcing them from South America. Same destination for the U.S. bushel; two different roads there.

The soybean version is the more perishable of the two, because the market is large: a single confirmed U.S.-origin Chinese purchase would move the needle far more than in corn, where the whole import book is only 5–6 MMT. The "news of China purchases" that rallied U.S. prices is exactly the kind of headline that has, so far, cleared through Brazil.
The structural tilt to South America is not only price — it is harvest timing (Q1–Q2 SA supply), the Milei export-tax glide-path improving Argentine competitiveness (see 2026n06_usda_argentina), and Brazil's record, still-expanding crop (see 2026n06_usda_brazil).
Net: we can quote USDA's 115 MMT / +61% of world trade as the authoritative baseline as of July, while noting on our own authority that the U.S.-share question — not the demand question — is the one to watch, and that Export Sales to China (and "unknown destinations") is the ledger that would confirm any shift.

How to read this page. The "What USDA's reports say" sections are SoftSignal's neutral summary of USDA reporting, cited to each source. Post/attaché figures are USDA staff research, not official USDA estimates; the official numbers are the WASDE. The "SoftSignal's view" boxes are our own market read, not USDA's. Nothing here is investment advice.

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