SoftSignal Research

Commodity data, ready for
you and your AI.

A consolidated portal of commodity market data — Coffee, Grains, Energy, and Livestock — built to be readable by you and by AI. CFTC positioning, USDA supply & demand, agro-climatic conditions, and EIA energy data in one place. Pair the news your AI already follows with the hard numbers it usually can't access.

Explore the Demo →
Primary data sources
CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders — weekly
EIA Natural gas storage, spot prices, LNG exports
NOAA GFS 16-day forecast · population-weighted HDD/CDD
ERA5 30-year climate normals — WMO 1991–2020 baseline
USDA NASS crop progress · WASDE supply & demand
UNL US Drought Monitor — D0–D4 weekly severity

Built for independent traders who care about fundamentals

SoftSignal is for people who follow commodity markets seriously and want the data their broker doesn't show them. If you use Barchart for prices and wish there was somewhere clean to read the fundamentals — storage levels, crop conditions, positioning, weather — this is built for you.

What this isn't: an analyst service. There are no trade signals, no proprietary models, no market calls. The reports show you the data — clearly, consistently, in one place — and the AI assistant helps you ask questions of it. You bring the interpretation.


Four weekly reports

Each report is self-contained, updated on its own schedule, and hosted as an interactive HTML document. Subscribers receive a summary email with a direct link to the current week's issue, which updates in place throughout the week. All four publications are included in a single subscription. Try the demo →

SoftSignal Pro
Energy · Grain · Coffee · Livestock — all four weekly publications
AI Research Assistant at chat.getsoftsignal.com
The AI Research Assistant is updated continuously based on how subscribers use it. Feedback shapes what we build next.
$150/mo
Subscribe →
Energy
Energy Market Intelligence

Natural gas market intelligence — temperature demand forecasts, EIA supply data, and CFTC positioning in one report updated each morning.

  • Population-weighted HDD/CDD for 9 US energy regions — 16-day GFS forecast
  • Deviation from 30-year ERA5 climate normals, updated daily
  • EIA weekly natural gas storage vs. 5-year average and prior year
  • Henry Hub spot price, power burn, production, and LNG export context
  • CFTC COT positioning for natural gas, WTI crude, heating oil, RBOB
  • ENSO phase and seasonal demand implication updated weekly
Grain
Grain Outlook | US

Weekly analysis of corn, soybean, and winter wheat markets — from field conditions through futures positioning.

  • CFTC Disaggregated COT for corn, soybeans, SRW & HRW wheat
  • USDA NASS crop progress & conditions (Good + Excellent %)
  • US Drought Monitor — corn/soy belt and HRW wheat belt coverage
  • Seasonal condition overlays vs. prior years back to 2010
  • Full-season report April–November; COT + drought only December–March
  • USDA Prospective Plantings and WASDE context at key releases
Coffee
Coffee Market Intelligence

Dual-market coverage of ICE KC Arabica and ICE EU Robusta futures — combining positioning analysis with growing-region climatology.

  • CFTC & Liffe disaggregated COT — commercial and managed-money positioning
  • Sentiment index: percentile rank vs. full history since 2006
  • Arabica: Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia crop-water-stress deviations
  • Robusta: Vietnam, Brazil Conilon, and Indonesia agro-climatic conditions
  • KC and RC price overlays with seasonal trajectory context
  • Updated weekly after CFTC Friday release
Livestock
Livestock Market Intelligence

Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs — supply pipeline, cold storage, feed cost margins, thermal stress, and CFTC positioning.

  • USDA Cattle on Feed — placements and marketings monthly
  • USDA Cold Storage — frozen beef and pork stocks
  • Feed cost ratios — cattle-corn and hog-corn margin indicators
  • Daily apparent temperature stress index — hog belt & feedlot belt, updated every morning
  • CFTC COT for Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs
  • US Drought Monitor — key grazing state coverage
Supporting reports
Cross-market
The Positioning Report

Speculative positioning across softs, secondary grains, and energy & metals — three weekly chart sets providing broader market perspective beyond our core SoftSignal reports..

  • Softs — Coffee C, Cocoa, Sugar No. 11, Cotton No. 2, Frozen OJ
  • Secondary Grains — Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil
  • Energy & Metals — WTI Crude, RBOB Gasoline, Gold, Silver, Copper
  • Managed-money net position vs. full COT history since 2010
  • Structural Hedging Pressure Index — dealer options exposure ranked vs. history
  • Week-over-week price change and positioning flow per market
Grain
WASDE Grain & Cotton Report

A clean visual read of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, published the day of each monthly release.

  • Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Cotton
  • World and US ending stocks with stocks-to-use ratios
  • Month-over-month revision tracking
  • History back to 2007 for trend context
Climate
ENSO Intelligence

Monthly ocean–atmosphere state report covering El Niño and La Niña — and their implications for every commodity market SoftSignal covers.

  • ONI and RONI — traditional and climate-adjusted ENSO indices side by side
  • SOI atmospheric signal and OLR tropical convection
  • Four Niño region SSTs — the spatial picture of Pacific warming
  • Commodity impact matrix — El Niño and La Niña effects across coffee, grains, energy, and livestock
  • Historical event archive since 1950 with peak values and duration

Primary data sources

Every number in every report traces back to a public, authoritative source. No proprietary models, no black boxes, no analyst opinions. The data — assembled, normalized, and presented in one place — is the value.

CFTC Disaggregated COT All reports Weekly commitments of traders — producers, swap dealers, managed money, other reportables. Released each Friday. Why COT matters →
EIA — Energy Information Admin. Energy Weekly natural gas storage (Thursdays), Henry Hub spot prices, dry gas production, power burn, LNG export data.
NOAA / GFS Forecast Energy 16-day Global Forecast System temperature forecasts across 91 population-weighted grid points in nine US energy regions. Updated daily via Open-Meteo.
Copernicus ERA5 Energy 30-year (1991–2020) hourly reanalysis data for HDD/CDD climate normals. The WMO standard baseline for all temperature anomaly reporting.
NOAA CPC — ENSO Indices All reports ONI (Oceanic Niño Index), RONI (Relative ONI — climate-adjusted), SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation), and ERSSTv5 Niño region SSTs. ENSO phase shapes seasonal risk across every commodity covered by SoftSignal.
USDA NASS Grain Weekly crop progress and condition ratings for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat at national and state level.
US Drought Monitor Grain University of Nebraska–Lincoln weekly drought severity. D0–D4 coverage percentages for key grain-belt and grazing states.
USDA WASDE Grain Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates — global production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Released ~10th–12th of each month.
ICE Liffe (Robusta) Coffee ICE EU disaggregated positioning data for Robusta Coffee futures traded in London.

Market analysis

Data-driven notes on commodity fundamentals — drought, positioning, supply and demand. Designed for traders who want to see the numbers behind the narrative.

May 16, 2026
Grain Livestock
One Drought, Three Markets: How a Weak La Niña Reshaped the 2026 US Grain & Livestock Setup
The Southern Plains drought reads differently for HRW wheat, cattle, and soybeans. A breakdown of what the Drought Monitor, USDA condition data, and CFTC positioning are showing — and where the stories diverge.
Read →
All research →

Frequently asked

How often are reports updated?
Energy Market Intelligence updates daily — weather forecasts each morning, EIA storage added Thursday PM after the 10:30am ET release, and COT positioning added Friday PM after the 3:30pm ET release. The same report URL updates in place throughout the week.

Grain Outlook updates three times each week — Monday (opening view), Thursday (drought data refresh), and Friday (final with full COT).

Livestock Market Intelligence includes a climate stress index that updates daily; the full report updates weekly after the Friday CFTC release.

Coffee Market Intelligence and The Positioning Report update once per week after the Friday CFTC release.
What is population-weighted temperature forecasting?
Standard weather services report temperature at single stations or simple geographic averages. SoftSignal weights GFS model temperature forecasts by population density across 91 grid points in nine US energy regions — giving more influence to areas where more people live and consume energy. The 30-year climate normals (ERA5, 1991–2020) use the same weighting, so deviations are directly comparable.
What format are the reports in?
Reports are interactive HTML documents hosted at reports.getsoftsignal.com. All charts are fully interactive — zoom, hover for exact values, toggle series on and off. The link in your weekly email is stable for the full week and updates in place as new data is added, so revisiting the same link always shows the freshest data.
Can I use these reports with AI tools like ChatGPT or Claude?
Yes — and this is a deliberate design decision. Behind each chart, the full underlying data table is embedded directly in the page as structured text, readable by AI browser extensions and assistants. A clipboard icon on each chart lets you copy the data in one click and paste it into any AI tool. Because the actual numbers are in the page — not locked in a PDF — AI responses are grounded in real data rather than approximations.

The portal also has a Copy link button in the bottom corner of each report. Paste that link directly into Claude, ChatGPT, or any other AI assistant with browsing capability and it will read the live report — no copy-paste of individual charts required. How we built it →
What is included in a subscription?
A single subscription gives access to all four weekly publications — Energy, Grain, Coffee, and Livestock — Supplemental reports covering ENSO, WASDE, and additional Positioning Reports — plus the AI Research Assistant, through one portal at chat.getsoftsignal.com.
What is the Demo?
The demo portal at chat.getsoftsignal.com/demo gives full access to all SoftSignal reports — Energy, Grain, Coffee, and Livestock — along with the Positioning Report, WASDE, and ENSO Intelligence supplements. Reports in the demo are typically a few weeks behind the current issue; you're seeing a real report, not a simplified preview. The AI chat assistant is not active in the demo.

We offer an open demo rather than a trial period deliberately — no email address or payment details required. If you want to see what a subscription looks like before committing, just open the demo.
Do I need a financial background to use these reports?
The reports are designed for active retail traders and commodity market followers who understand futures basics. COT data is explained in context, but we assume familiarity with concepts like long/short positioning and open interest. If you follow commodity markets, you'll find the analysis immediately useful.
Can I share the report link with others?
Use the Copy link button in the bottom corner of any report to copy the direct URL. That link is stable for the current week and updates in place as new data posts — the same URL always shows the freshest version of that report.

Report URLs are not publicly indexed. Sharing a link occasionally with a colleague is fine; systematic redistribution is a violation of the subscription terms.
What is the Commitments of Traders report?
The CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is a weekly publication showing the aggregate futures positions of producers, swap dealers, managed money (hedge funds), and other large traders across hundreds of regulated US markets. It reveals who holds positions — not just the price. Percentile-ranked against full history, managed money extremes and commercial hedger positioning are among the most reliable indicators of sentiment crowding and potential reversals. Read the full explanation →
What is the WASDE supplement?
The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates is one of the most market-moving reports in commodities, released monthly. Our WASDE supplements are visual interpretations with ending stocks history, stocks-to-use trends, and month-over-month revisions.

The Grain supplement covers Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, and Cotton. The Livestock supplement covers cattle, hogs, and poultry supply and demand. The Coffee Supply report combines USDA production and balance sheet data with CONAB Brazil crop surveys, arabica and conilon production estimates, and the Jun/Dec forecast revision.
What is the ENSO Intelligence supplement?
El Niño and La Niña are the most powerful recurring climate signals affecting global commodity markets — Brazilian coffee crops, Australian wheat, US grain belt conditions, and natural gas demand all shift meaningfully between phases. The ENSO Intelligence supplement is a free monthly report covering the current ocean–atmosphere state using five NOAA indices: the traditional ONI, the newer climate-adjusted RONI (which accounts for background ocean warming due to climate change), the Southern Oscillation Index, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, and regional Pacific SSTs. A commodity impact matrix translates each phase into directional implications for the markets we cover. No subscription required.