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Market walks Crop calendar Knowledge base MCP

Market walks · Coffee · Edition of Oct 16, 2026

Coffee, from the screen to the farm

Published Oct 16, 2026 · corrected Oct 17, 2026 (note) · arabica futures through

Compared with the past

How this page decides what to show. Each link is compared with its own history over the window you pick above. A reading below the 10th or above the 90th percentile is marked unusual, and anything in between is normal. The page puts links side by side. It does not claim one causes another.

Correction, Oct 17, 2026. This edition first showed Indonesia as “dry at a critical stage.” Our crop calendar had Indonesian robusta flowering, a critical stage, in October. USDA’s attaché in Jakarta reports flowering near mid-year, so October no longer counts as critical, and Indonesia now reads as context only. The same calendar review marked Central America’s October–November rust-pressure window as critical (its reading is near normal) and moved Vietnam’s critical months. No price, position, stock or estimate changed, and the board still shows 4 of 7 links outside their normal range.

Data as of. Arabica futures settlement Oct 16, 2026 · CFTC positions Oct 13, 2026 · ICE certified stocks Oct 15, 2026 · CONAB 3rd survey of the 2026 crop (Sep 2026) · USDA FAS PSD, July 2026 release · origin weather through Oct 1–10, 2026 · crop calendar of Oct 17, 2026 (corrected; first published with the calendar of Sep 6, 2026).

Sources. ICE arabica (KC) front-month settlements; CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders, Coffee C futures; ICE certified arabica stocks; CONAB Brazil coffee surveys; USDA FAS PSD; SoftSignal dekadal origin weather (ECMWF ERA5-Land, 1991–2020 normals); SoftSignal crop calendar (descriptive timing). This edition is frozen: its numbers will not change after publication. Built with AI tools to gather and cross-check the data and draft the copy; every number and label was reviewed by a person before publication.

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